The Presidential Election of 1916, Part II, Incumbent Woodrow Wilson

President Wilson Proved Adept at Campaigning

In 1916, many commentators picked Hughes to win. However,  those  experts—as can happen —were wrong, although in this case, just barely. They seem to have underestimated the growing power of the incumbency in the early 20th century. Wilson had key advantages his opponent lacked—the prestige of the presidency, immediate access to the press and public view, and many surrogates obliged to support him. On this latter point, of his Progressive supporters, former secretary of state William Jennings Bryan—who had resigned in protest over the president's handling of the Lusitania incident—proved his most dynamic advocate, especially in locking down the Western states.  

On the opposing side, Theodore Roosevelt—in his belated effort to mend his Republican fences, championed Hughes—but alarmed many of those same voters with his pugnacity and willingness to see the nation join the war.

Wilson's record domestically was substantial. Over his first term he had pushed through legislation to enable much of his domestic progressive agenda. From the start of the war, the president was also a consistently strong spokesman for American neutrality. Later, as foreign crises mounted, he adroitly evolved into an effective Preparedness advocate. To assuage the Preparedness Movement, Wilson signed two substantial military bills strengthening the army and navy during the campaign: the National Defense Act on 3 June, just before the conventions, and the Naval Appropriations Act on 29 August.  [See our May 2015 issue for more on this legislation and the Preparedness Movement in general.] This "Neutral-but-Prepared" formula of Wilson would help him pull an upset in his single most important state victory: strongly Republican Ohio in the industrial belt, with its 24 electoral votes. Most accounts of the 1916 election focus on Hughes's surprising loss in California. However, had Wilson won California (13 electoral votes) but lost Ohio, he would have failed to be reelected.

Advantage to the Democratic Ticket

Wilson and his running mate Vice President Thomas Marshall were re-nominated on the first ballot at the Democratic convention in St. Louis. The party platform, approved by the president, proposed a slew of reforms, banning child labor, improving prison conditions, and promoting women's suffrage (but not via a constitutional amendment). In foreign affairs, it called for military preparedness and a world association of nations to maintain peace after the war in Europe had ended. More important, its final draft incorporated one of the most successful and deceptive campaign slogans in American history, "[He] Kept Us Out of War." 

As a campaigner, Wilson—in contrast to Hughes—exceeded expectations. He was artful with the English language and could be quite deceptive. In private he admitted to being highly skilled at "truth grazing."  Republican leaders had come to deeply mistrust him during his first term, but naturally, Democrats admired him for these same skills, and they proved extremely  useful to Wilson during the rough-and-tumble campaigning of 1916.

Next Friday:  Part III, The Origins of "He Kept Us Out of War"

Sources: We adapted this series from several sources we should credit here—the Miller Center of the University of Virginia,  the American Presidency Project of the University of California at Santa Barbara, 270 To Win,  OurCampaigns.com,  and Gallup.com.