AI Says Tsar Alexander II (1818–1881) Caused World War One

AI-Generated WWI Image

Editor's Introduction: In my ongoing effort to find fresh material for our readers, I've following a two-prong strategy or exploring scholarly and out-of-the-mainstream sources about any previously unrecognized or unexplored aspects of the war.  

The AI program that's attached to Google Chrome, named GEMINI, quickly and surprisingly for me, popped out an idea, generated by scientist Peter Turchin (born in Russia in 1957), that I had never heard of in my 30 years of WWI study. I'm not a fan of AI, but it sounded like something fresh and interesting.  MH

Origins

Turchin (this bio also via AI)  is a complexity scientist and the founder of cliodynamics, an interdisciplinary field that uses mathematical modeling and big data to analyze historical processes. While originally trained as an ecologist (majored in biology), he is currently a prominent figure in the study of social and cultural evolution.

His most famous work—he's stupendously prolific—seems to be the grim sounding End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration.  (In a nutshell, he thinks we're doomed due to economic and social immisseration of we normies, plus elite overproduction, i.e., too many gazillionaires and over-educated ambitious types competing for a limited number of power positions—all of this happening at the same time.) Anyway, GEMINI AI seems to love him and has cranked out the following about his analysis of  the deep origins of the Great War and what ensued. 

It's the fault of a 19th century tsar.

Tsar Alexander II  and Peter Tuchin

The Argument

Peter Turchin’s analysis of the Russian Empire, particularly the era from Alexander II through the First World War, centers on his Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT). This theory posits that long-term historical cycles are driven by the shifting relationship between the state, the elites, and the general population. 

Alexander II and the Origins of Calamity

Turchin views the reign of Alexander II (r. 1855–1881) as a critical turning point where state-driven reforms and elite strategies began to destabilize the empire: 

Elite Over-Expansion: One strategy elites use to escape internal calamities is expansion abroad. Under Alexander II, Russia expanded aggressively into Central Asia and the Pacific. While intended to export surplus elites and "excess young men" to foreign colonies, this policy ultimately increased the likelihood of disaster through over-expansion.

Systemic Shocks: This territorial growth brought Russia into direct competition with other great powers. According to Turchin’s framework, "mission creep" grew national interests beyond the state's capacity to manage, leading to major system shocks like the Russo-Japanese War (1904–05) and, eventually, the First World War.

Failed Social Cohesion: Although Alexander II’s Great Reforms (such as the 1861 emancipation of serfs) were intended to modernize Russia, they also fragmented political and social society. The tsar attempted to act as a mediator between social groups, which ultimately prevented widespread social cohesiveness from evolving under the tsarist state. 

Geopolitical Instability: Turchin’s work  examines the complex network of alliances and enmities prior to the war (e.g., the Franco-Russian military alliance vs. British-Russian enmity), noting how these international contradictions further strained the Russian state. 

The First World War as a Systemic Trigger

In Turchin’s cliodynamics (the mathematical study of history), the First World War served as a "trigger"—a sudden event that releases decades of slowly built-up structural pressure: 

Structural-Demographic Pressures: By the early 20th century, Russia was experiencing a "disintegrative phase" of its secular cycle. This phase is characterized by elite overproduction (too many elites competing for limited positions) and declining well-being for the general population.

The Breakdown of Cooperation: Turchin argues that as empires grow, "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer," causing conflict to replace cooperation. The massive stresses of World War I exacerbated these internal fissures, leading to the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917.

Summary of Turchin's Russian Cycle

Phase / Key Events & Dynamics

• Pre Growth Integrative/ Formation of the empire on frontiers; high internal solidarity (asabiya).

• Alexander II Era/ Great Reforms; over-expansion into Central Asia; seeds of elite overproduction.

• Disintegrative/ Increased inequality; elite competition; declining state capacity. [War as a "solution" to these problems.]

• State Breakdown/ First World War acting as a further trigger for revolution and civil war (1917).

Comments welcome.